Despite widespread optimism in the crypto community, Bitcoin may be entering a period of extended consolidation, according to 10x Research’s head of research Markus Thielen.
In a market note published on April 14, Thielen warned that short-term technical signals are painting a more cautious picture, even as many analysts forecast new all-time highs by mid-year.
Bitcoin Momentum Signals Late-Cycle Top, Says 10x Research
Thielen pointed to the Bitcoin stochastic oscillator, a technical indicator that measures momentum, suggesting the market is displaying traits more consistent with a late-cycle top than the beginning of a new bull run.
“Short-term signals are not aligning with longer-term indicators, highlighting the disconnect in the market outlook,” he explained.
He emphasized that Bitcoin’s market dynamics have evolved significantly. “Bitcoin is no longer a parabolic ‘Long-Only’ retail-driven market,” Thielen said.
Instead, he believes the recent rally has been powered by long-term holders and institutional investors adopting a buy-and-hold strategy rather than speculative trading.
Bitcoin is currently up over 32% over the past year, trading around $83,810 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin: No Longer ‘Long Only’ ???
1-13) Year-to-date, Bitcoin ETF inflows stand at just +$225 million—and they could turn negative at any moment as the ongoing uncertainty surrounding Trump’s trade war continues to ripple through financial markets.
Bitcoin ETFs are on track… pic.twitter.com/zWx1SNqrx7
— 10x Research (@10x_Research) April 14, 2025
Despite the rally, Thielen expects the asset to remain within a wide trading range, echoing the consolidation seen in 2024.
He projects Bitcoin will likely fluctuate between $73,000 and $94,000, with a slight upward tilt in momentum.
The cryptocurrency previously hit a then-record high of $73,679 in March 2024, followed by a prolonged sideways phase that only ended after Donald Trump’s U.S. election victory in November.
Bitcoin reached its current all-time high of $109,000 in January 2025, just before Trump’s inauguration.
Other Analysts Remain Bullish
While Thielen urges caution, other analysts maintain a more bullish stance.
Economists Timothy Peterson and Jamie Coutts, Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst, expect Bitcoin to hit new highs in Q2.
Likewise, Andrew Kang, founder of crypto venture firm Mechanism Capital, has doubled his bullish bet on Bitcoin, taking a $200 million long position.
As reported, a wallet tied to Kang made a second $100 million leveraged long bet on Bitcoin on Monday, bringing his total position to $200 million.
The recent trade carries an estimated potential gain or loss of around $6.8 million, reflecting Kang’s confidence in a near-term Bitcoin rally.
Last week, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reiterated his December prediction that Bitcoin could hit $200,000 before the close of 2025.
Hougan argued that recent developments in U.S. trade policy, particularly under former President Donald Trump’s renewed tariff push, could act as tailwinds for Bitcoin.
According to Hougan, the administration’s apparent willingness to weaken the U.S. dollar—despite risking its role as the world’s reserve currency—could ultimately benefit decentralized assets like Bitcoin.
Over the long run, Hougan envisions a move away from a single global reserve currency toward a diversified system.
In this future, he sees Bitcoin and gold playing a more prominent role in international finance.
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